A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
